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Earthquake Alert Message by Don Prince

The day before yesterday at 10:15 PM in Kathmandu, I was about to sleep, a 4.6 MS suddenly stroke with breath taking tremor and highly alerting sound. Just for a while I forgot that it could be only a momentary aftershock. But I did not panic. Nor did anyone in my family run away. I suggested everyone that there was nothing to get afraid. It was just an aftershock which was a bit stronger. I also said that the epicenter must have been inside the city. So it felt strongly. Then all of us slept calmly. But in the morning I came to know that some people in the city had spent whole night out of the house getting scared with this aftershock. So I decided to write this article to convey my important message to them so that they do not face such problem next time.

There are 3 reasons I  guaranteed it was a normal jolt having epicenter in Kathmandu:

1. It felt strongly
As aftershock is felt stronger near the epicenter, this strongly felt jolt gave a hint that it must be around the city. It was taken seriously by media and public in Kathmandu. But there was nothing special to highlight. By the way aftershocks of around 4.6 were going on continuously in other parts of the rupture area. However this aftershock terrorized people in Kathmandu. Because its epicenter was inside Kathmandu.

2. It gave experience of sound
We do not hear the sound of earthquake itself but we hear the sound of physical things on the earth which are moved by earthquake. Big earthquake gives sound experience everywhere. But small aftershock can make us hear sound only if we are near the epicenter because small aftershock is stronger near the epicenter only. And it is weaker in the places far from the epicenter. As the aftershock gave sound experience, chances were high that it was in or near the city.

3. Time was too short
If it had been an independent earthquake, it could have lasted for longer time. But it was for a short time. Similarly it slowed down exponentially and gave experience of descending shaking for more time which is the strong evidence that aftershock began and ended inside the city.

Photo Credit: NSC

The day before yesterday's aftershock was not a surprising attack for me. In fact, I was waiting for a 4.9 MS to match my self developed statistic which I am going to release after aftershocks completely stop in Nepal. According to my unexposed theory, an aftershock of around 4.9 is still inevitable in near future. If it does not happen, the upcoming aftershock will not exceed 4.6. And it will modify my upcoming law, i.e. ''Prince's Law of Aftershocks''.

So, I, through this article, want to spread the message that unlike day before yesterday, there is high chance that an aftershock of around 4.9 MS or 4.4 MS is going to strike Nepal in near future which is not dangerous. People far from the epicenter may not feel it but it can terrorize the people nearby the epicenter. If you experience it, do not run away blindly inviting unwanted accident. Stay inside till you confirm that it is not a small aftershock but an independent earthquake of other part of Nepal or another strong aftershock. And you can do it by waiting at least 5 seconds inside the house. At last, I am happy to pour my opinion that the aftershocks of Nepal are settling exponentially day by day.

Please share this message with your friends, relatives and followers.
Discovered by Don Prince

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