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USGS Says There is Only 0.3% Chance for Mega Earthquake in Nepal

A special report made by USGS after the aftershock of May 12 has concluded that there is only 0.3% probability of more than 7.8 M aftershock in Nepal. 7.8 M is the magnitude of Nepal Earthquake 2015 recorded by USGS. Similarly it says that there is only 1% chance for more than 7 M aftershock. It also says that there may be one aftershock of more than 6 M. But the probability is 15% only. Similarly It says probability is 80% that there will be 4 aftershocks between 5 to 6 magnitude.

The analysis has been made specially for the week of May 13 to May 19 and may be changed when more data becomes available. Based on the currently available data USGS says that there will not be more than 7.8 M earthquake in Nepal throughout the year.


According to Nepal Seismological Centre, from May 13 to May 19, five aftershocks of more than 5 M have been recorded in Nepal. Similarly, there were five aftershocks of more than 4.5 M aftershocks. Rest of the aftershocks were less than 4.5 M. USGS has said that the number of aftershocks will be declining with time.

This report of USGS has given a bad slap to the rumours spread in Nepal. Today is May 19. Now USGS analysis can be compared with the aftershock recorded from May 13 to May 19 in Nepal. As the magnitude recorded by NSC will be less than the record of USGS, the USGS prediction has matched with the aftershocks of the week. The analysis has also proven that the mega earthquake of 25 April is the mainshock and it can't be foreshock to predict larger earthquake in the near future.
Rediscovered by Don Prince

Disclaimer: This post has been created to give relief to the people of Nepal who are fearful to the earthquake. It does not guarantee that there won’t be another large earthquake in Nepal.  Common people and the concerned authorities should be cautious towards the earthquake which is natural and may happen anywhere and any time.}

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