This is National Discovery Channel. We are not Discovery. Nor are we National Geographic Channel.

Nature had Already Given Signal for the Nepal Earthquake 2015 But No one Noticed

Today is the 15th day of the Nepal Earthquake 2015. Nepal was in zero level preparation for the disaster. After all, no one can predict earthquake. But today, while studying the earthquake patterns of Nepal, I have found that nature had already given signal of this disaster months ago but everyone ignored.

Yesterday there were 5 aftershocks greater than 4 magnitude. Some innocent people are still getting scared. People are discussing about aftershocks everywhere. But what about foreshocks? Foreshocks’ discussion has been overshadowed in Nepal.

Foreshocks
What are foreshocks? As we call ‘afershocks’ to the shocks after the mainshock {main earthquake}, the shocks before the mainshock are called ‘foreshocks’. Similarly, as aftershocks can happen after minutes to more than year of the mainshock, foreshocks also can happen before minutes to years of the mainshock. For example ‘2002 Sumatra Earthquake’ is regarded as the foreshock of the ‘2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake’. Geologists say that about 70% of the earthquake with more than 7 magnitude can have foreshocks. That means, we can predict large earthquake by analysing the foreshocks pattern happened minutes to years ago, though that can’t be always right. Wikipedia says that ‘1975 Haicheng Earthquake’ occurred in China had been predicted previously by analysing the increase in seismic activity {foreshocks} which triggered  an evacuation of the place under the command of the political leaders just a day before the disaster takes place.  There are many such examples in the history.

Now the question goes ‘’Did ‘Nepal Earthquake 2015’ have foreshocks?’’ Nepalese geologists say that this earthquake occurred at once without any foreshocks. But I personally believe that there must be foreshocks as chances are high that the earthquake more than 7 magnitude has foreshocks naturally. Moreover the shocks greater than 4 magnitude in Nepal were frequent around the month of the large earthquake. 2 earthquakes were more than 5 magnitude. Before 2 days of the large earthquake, an earthquake with more than 4 magnitude occurred making Kaski epicentre which is near Gorkha district. Gorkha was the epicentre of the Nepal Earthquake 2015. Though it is my personal opinion, I believe that those shocks were the foreshocks of the main earthquake occurred on 25th April 2015. The 5.9 earthquake originated in Solukhumbu district of Nepal on 18th December 2014 was the main foreshock of this Earthquake.

New Formula to predict Earthquake
While studying foreshocks to estimate future earthquake, I have accidentally discovered a new idea to predict the large earthquake before it occurs. Let’s think that this is the right formula to know the large earthquake before it shakes. This formula is specially for Nepal and it may not comply with other countries as land features are different in different countries. However it can be a reference to all conditions especially in the area similar to Nepal. So now I want to drop the topic of foreshock here and I am going to present my own idea to predict earthquake. I hope it will be taken seriously by everyone especially by the concerned authorities and lives could be saved anywhere in the future.

First of all let me tell you how can I say that nature has already given signal of the Nepal Earthquake 2015 which no one noticed. After studying the past earthquakes of Nepal through Nepal Seismological Centre, I have noted down the following important information.

Year     Earthquake
2011       46
2012       37
2013       25
2014       11

Above is the record of earthquakes of Nepal with more than 4 magnitude happened in the past 4 years. The data clarifies that the earthquakes were decreasing every year from 2011 AD. In 2014 only 11 earthquakes took place. Then Nepal experienced 7.6 ML high earthquake in 2015.

I have noticed similar patterns in many medium and large earthquakes of Nepal. The above mentioned example is only for representation.

Now with the help of the above information, we can make a formula:

Higher the frequency, Lower the magnitude
Lower the frequency, Higher the magnitude

{Only earthquakes above 4 ML or more are considered }

Let me make it clearer. There were only 11 shocks in 2014. In 2015 before the large earthquake {4 months}, there were only 6 shocks that resulted 7.6 ML high earthquake on 25 April. So now we can say that having only 11 earthquakes in 2014 was the natural signal that Nepal was going to face large earthquake more than 7 magnitude in 2015. Same condition occurred in the most of the medium and large earthquakes in the past.

Next time, if seismograph of Nepal shows fewer earthquakes {around 10} in Nepal in any year, the country should prepare for the next large earthquake {more than 7 ML} immediately. In this way I can give surprise to everyone saying that the seismograph which measures the earthquake is the right device to predict future earthquake.

This is my rough estimation. I could go more in-depth if I got all information through seismograph. Moreover, I could estimate future earthquakes more accurately, if I got 1 year free time to study on it.

Is there any chance of large earthquake in the recent month?
If earthquakes are few, there will be accumulation of energy. So there will be large blast leading a large earthquake. But if earthquakes are frequent {many}, there will be less energy accumulated that will escape the chance of large earthquake. The above made formula represents this scientific fact.

This is the reason currently there is only 0.01% chance of large earthquake in Nepal because after the big blast on 25 April, the accumulated energy has been released. Moreover the rest of the energy is being released with hundreds of aftershocks. Nepal has experienced more than 150 aftershocks and it is still going on. I think Nepal will experience more than 200 aftetshocks over the next month. It is equal to the earthquakes of several years in the past. Now for another big blast, there should be huge energy accumulation which will take many decades. So there is no chance of large earthquake in the recent month. As aftershocks are more in the recent days that have increased the time {years} of large earthquake. So there is no matter to worry.

When is the next large earthquake in Nepal?
I think at least 10 years we should not even think over the next large earthquake in Nepal. Earthquake is taking place in Nepal due to the collision of the Indian and Tibetan tectonic plates. Now the accumulated energy created due to the pressure of Indian plate towards Tibetan plate has been released. Many aftershocks also have been taken place. If we apply the above mentioned formula that says that there won’t be another large earthquake in Nepal before 50/60 years. Yes, if this earthquake had not been a large earthquake {had been less than 8 magnitude}, then we could have said there will be next glance of 1990 earthquake in Nepal in a few years. But this is about 8 magnitude {7.6 ML, 7.8 MW, 8.1 MS} earthquake. Now it takes about a century to accumulate similar energy. So there is no chance of another large earthquake in this century. However, there will occur earthquakes frequently in Nepal but that will be small and medium level that can rarely harm anyone.

As Nepal experienced another big aftershock of 6.8 ML on 12th May, I have written the second part of this article. If you want to read, you can click here.

{This post has been created to give relief to the people of Nepal who are fearful to the earthquake. It does not guarantee that there won’t be another large earthquake in Nepal. This is the scientific analysis of the author. Common people and the concerned authorities should be cautious towards the earthquake which is natural and can happen anywhere and any time.}
Discovered by Don Prince

37 comments:

  1. I agree sir on your view about deposition of energy at the core of earth and their release to maintain equilibrium in for of many small quakes or few larger quakes. But I think the exceed to bearing capacity of kathmandu and the pollution were prime cause and this is the time we need to decentralize kathmandu!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thank You for this post. Factual study have been made.

    ReplyDelete
  3. What does your calculation say about unpredictable Tuesday's earthquake and does your calculation stilll follows your theories yet?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Big earthquake has already occurred in Nepal on 12 May 2015.... How to believe anyone.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. well first thing, it was not an earthquake but an aftershock......and if want to compare the magnitude given by Nepal Seismological Center, the difference between 7.6 Richter and 6.8 is is big when it comes to earthquake... According to USGS, there was about 20-30% window for >6 magnitude earthquake.
      even if we are not experts on this, the least we can do is carefully and sensitively read the case or extract information.

      Delete
    2. well first thing, it was not an earthquake but an aftershock......and if want to compare the magnitude given by Nepal Seismological Center, the difference between 7.6 Richter and 6.8 is is big when it comes to earthquake... According to USGS, there was about 20-30% window for >6 magnitude earthquake.
      even if we are not experts on this, the least we can do is carefully and sensitively read the case or extract information.

      Delete
  5. The second part of this article will be published today at 8 PM which will explain 12 May 2015 Earthquake.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I am looking forward to the second part of the article.
    But i am not convinced in your analysis taking the records of past 4 years for the following two reasons.
    1. I don't think only a 4 year analysis of such a major earthquake is sufficient because the return period of such large earthquakes or any other natural disasters like floods is usually very high. I think data of at least 50+ years are required for the conclusion to have any credibility.
    2. Your analysis of the historic record of earthquakes only involved numbers, but it would have made more sense to account for the magnitudes of the foreshocks as well.
    50 earthquakes of 3-4richter scale releases much smaller energy than 10earthquakes of 5+magnitude.

    Also if the pattern was as simple as you have made it to be, probably other seismological experts would have caught up on it already.

    Still very nice attempt and the article does provide lots of hope for the hopeless.
    Kudos to you!

    ReplyDelete
  7. it has been 5-6 years smaller scale earthquake occurred annually once or twice..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. check out the website of NSC to see the records of earthquake in different years.
      seismonepal.gov.np/index.php?action=earthquakes&show=past

      Delete
  8. Thank you for the great and productive research and information. But I have a question. If Nepal already faced the big hit of 7.8 magnitude on April 25, 2015, and numbers of aftershocks, why did Nepal again experienced the big hit of 7.3 magnitude on May 12, 2015?

    ReplyDelete
  9. To answer the queries of all readers, I have written the second part of this article.
    http://www.nationaldiscoverychannel.com/2015/05/nature-had-already-given-signal-part-II.html

    ReplyDelete
  10. Thanks all for the replies, comments, likes and shares. If you have any question, let me know. I will try my best to explain.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Good analysis, i think to some extent u are right, concern authority should give due attention in doing and promoting this type of research. one should not stay ideal presuming that earthquake occurring can not be predicted. i too belive that nature alway gives some hints for big incidents

    ReplyDelete
  12. what is the base year to consider for analysis? I could only see 4 years on the article

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is still a subject to research.

      Delete
  13. i'm sorry but i didn't feel any foreshocks .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can see the website of NSC for the earthquake update.
      seismonepal.gov.np

      Delete
  14. So according to your analysis ,,is it that there is chances of big earthquake in western regions of Nepal ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Currently the aftershocks are moving towards east. As western regions of Nepal are farther from the rupture zone of this earthquake, there is less chance of large quake. But if there is new independent earthquake in Nepal in the future, western regions are more vulnerable. And experts are saying this for many years.

      Delete
  15. Good Analysis, plz come on ahead of the day of Earthquake with your warning and recommendation, otherwise people will get more confused to calculate the mathematics. Still there can be lots of accumulated energy in another part of the Nepal, then which area will you take as a reference only Kathmandu ?????

    ReplyDelete
  16. Thank you Vinod ji for the appreciation. First of all I want to say that no one can ahead of Earthquake with warning. If I could, I would have come before 25 April and 12 May. After the bad event of earthquake in Nepal, I am focused in analysing the earthquakes of the past to get hints about upcoming earthquakes. This article is the example which is only beginning. In future, if I got any scientific reason to aware people, that will be my great pleasure. Right now I can't play with the emotion of the people by predicting randomly. I am doing what I can do is sharing my understanding to exchange knowledge with each other among all Nepalese to support in the time of crisis.

    I know today we have got very less aftershock and people are confused. In the comment above so many people asked me question about this confusion and I have answered too. Please read previous comment of this post for details.

    Yes you are right there can be lots of stored energy in many places and you know they are releasing as aftershock when they reach their threshold. The mega aftershock of 12 May one of the examples.

    You have asked about the reference area. If we are talking about for aftershocks, they occur in the current rupture zone district like Kathmandu, Gorkha, Dolakha, Nuwakot, Rasuwa, Sindhupalchow, etc. If you are talking about new independent earthquake out of this pattern. It can be anywhere in Nepal specially in the western regions as many geologists of Nepal say. But in my personal opinion currently new earthquake except aftershocks can't be expected anywhere in Nepal.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Sir you didn't mentioned pre domesticated animals and birds behaviours prior to fore shucks Believe that their phenomenon occure unnatural prior to foreshuck

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I will mention it later in my another post.

      Delete
  18. I appreciate your attempt to analyze data but your inference is total bogus. You said after April 25 earthquake, "I think at least 10 years we should not even think over the next large earthquake in Nepal". Well, another 7.3M one happened on May 12. How do you explain that? See this analysis from seismologists from Science journal. https://www.sciencemag.org/content/348/6234/484.short They're predicting another big one. Apparently, 8 or 9M is inevitable but its timing is unknown, most likely in the Western region.

    ReplyDelete
  19. That was foreshock not independent earthquake. I have already explained it in the second part of this article.

    ReplyDelete
  20. sorry I mean aftershock not foreshock
    see this for detail
    http://www.nationaldiscoverychannel.com/2015/05/nature-had-already-given-signal-part-II.html

    ReplyDelete
  21. If there is rumour that earthquake of 8 or 9 M is going to strike Nepal, this is only TRP. I am writing another article about it.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Well, I am not somehow convinced by your article. I see no any mathematical evidence nor scientific proof mentioned in above article to demonstrate further.

    The article merely talks about patterns and history.. but unfortunately earthquake do not follow them (my data analysis on siesmo.nepal.gov.np and some minor ground research says so). What is mentioned above is just "likely-to-happen". Yes, what you have to say shall certainly provide some relief to fellow Nepalese...at least that is what we all Nepalese are trying here to achieve.

    Here is what I blogged some days ago, and my conclusion is yet not profound! Do let me know if you feel the same.

    My Blog LINK: http://www.fasthack2u.blogspot.com/2015/05/some-key-analysis-on-nepal-earthquake.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As I have already said in this article, it is not a comprehensive research. I have just opened the door of a new room which was locked. So it is obvious that there lacks scientific proof and mathematical evidence.

      Seismology is still based on patterns and history as it can't be researched on physical background. Thanks for interaction. Now what we Nepalese fellows can do is exchanging knowledge to get better relief from the fear. I will definitely read your blog and then comment there.

      Delete
  23. By reading your article, i discovered that:


    If the decreasing pattern of foreshocks continues, then one year Nepal might not face any foreshocks. As the number of foreshocks is decreasing it will not rise once it reaches 0.

    That's what your article says. So if a year will nt have any foreshocks, will nepal face 0 mainshocks for the following years?

    ReplyDelete