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Nature had Already Given Signal for the Nepal Earthquake 2015 But No one Noticed {Part II}

‘’You said there was no chance of large earthquake in Nepal. But 6.8 magnitude earthquake stroke Nepal on 12th May. What do you say now?’’

‘’Explain the May 12 earthquake’’

‘’What does your calculation say about Tuesday’s earthquake? Does it still follow your theory?’’

Those are some of the responses of readers in this blog after 12th May earthquake in Nepal. I am writing this article to answer all the curiosities related to my viral article published a week ago.

First of all let me inform you, my previous article is still not stroke badly by the earthquake occurred on 12th May. The straight reason is that the earthquake of last Tuesday was one of the aftershocks of the mainshock occurred on 25th April. It was not a new earthquake. Let me repeat it. It was aftershock and it was smaller than the mainshock which still does not violate the established science of earthquake.

According to some geologists, there are two reasons we can say it was aftershock. First one is that it occurred in the same region and the second reason is that its magnitude was less than the mainshock of 25 April. It gave exactly 1 magnitude less aftershock after 24 hours though it had other big aftershocks immediately. Scientists believe that the large earthquake will trigger exactly 1 magnitude less another aftershock after 24 hours of the mainshock. And it had been proven by 6.9 aftershock on 26th April after the mainshock of 7.6 on 25th April.

You may say that the shaking of 12 May was not an aftershock but another new earthquake because it gave continuously about 35 aftershocks. But the actual reason behind a number of aftershocks after 6.8 shock is that it was a big aftershock not a miner one. You can also consider its duration. As it was longer than other aftershocks, you may believe that it can’t be aftershock. But that is not true. The fact is that aftershocks also can be longer like that. Remember the 6.9 aftershock of 26th April.

What does my calculation say about 12th May earthquake? Does it still follow my theory? I had not thought it in this level as I was centralised to the large earthquake of future. But after that event of 12th May, I rechecked the aftershocks patterns in NSC.  I found that there was really less aftershocks from two days {only 2 aftershocks per day for two days}. Does not it follow my theory expressed in my previous article, i.e., ‘’lower the frequency, higher the magnitude’’?


It creates an odd and sucking situation. If there are more aftershocks, they are expected to be reduced and ended by the people. If there is less aftershock, again there is fear of large earthquake. Then when will the fear of earthquake end? When will the aftershocks stop? Actually aftershocks can go up to the proper balance of the tectonic plates. But what is the estimated time for it? I think the average time where aftershocks are active is 1 month. Then it starts to be rare every month like once in a month, twice in three month, once in six month, etc.

As there is less aftershock again, you may be confused. So I have written another article to clarify. If you want to read, click here.
Discovered by Don Prince

Disclaimer: This post has been created to give relief to the people of Nepal who are fearful to the earthquake. It does not guarantee that there won’t be another large earthquake in Nepal.  Common people and the concerned authorities should be cautious towards the earthquake which is natural and may happen anywhere and any time.}.

23 comments:

  1. As per your justification for 12th may shock then again the aftershocks have decreased again since past 2 3 days so we can expect another similar big aftershock and the month ending is still to come 9 days more to end of the month.

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    1. If aftershocks are less than 3/4 per day, then there may be a threat. Yes 9 days remained to end one month. But there will be more aftershocks due to the big aftershock of 12 May. So we are positive.

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    2. So you mean to say 9 days does count anymore the month count is reset to 12th June is it.
      And pls explain positive in your statement.

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  2. We have to consider 25 April not 12 May as 25 April is the mainshock. 25 May is 1 month of this earthquake event. Because 12 May is only aftershock. We are positive. I mean we should not worry to a big aftershock because we are facing lots of aftershocks due to 6.8 big hit. As there are more aftershocks, there will be less chance of big aftershock. Today we faced 8 aftershocks. That means we will not be threatened by any big hit today.

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  3. We faced only 2 aftershocks today.Do this symbolize we will have to face huge quake again?

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    1. We are near 1 month threshold. So chance of a big quake is low. However, we should be cautious for more some days.

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  4. We faced only 2 aftershocks today.Do this symbolize we will have to face huge quake again?

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    1. Low chance. I have answered it in the comment above.

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  5. Sir, yesterday we've had only two aftershocks. And i am very scared for today! What is your opinion for todays earthquake?

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    1. Please read the comment above. By the way yesterday we had faced 4 aftershocks. 3 are recorded by NSC and 1 is missed by mistake. See
      http://www.seismonepal.gov.np/index.php?action=earthquakes&show=past

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    2. Thankyou! Please keep us on update about the earthquake :)

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  6. Analysing is good but your sample data is too few to predict earthquake pattern and you have considered only one factor. There could be multiple factor that affects the pattern which I think would be better to considered for more accuracy.

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    Replies
    1. Thank you for the good suggestion.

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  7. Aftershocks or new earthquake doesnot matter because aftershock of 7.3(acc. to americans) can also damage equally like new eq of 7.3.

    And who knows about Eq, anytime we can have a new big eq and we need to be prepared for that, this is just like a prediction, who will win the football, every predictor like you predict big team and at last the minnows wins it .

    Dont know about others but Im not convinced with your article.there is no point of justification, you are already proved wrong with 7.3 eq on Tuesday. that was not 6.8 by the way and aftershocks can not be just less than 0.6 , that must be less than 1 according to other experts.

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    1. Sanjeev ji, first of all thank you for the comment. Yes it is true that aftershock and an independent earthquake does not matter because can damage equally. However there are some difference like aftershock can't be greater than the mainshock. If aftershock is greater than the mainshock, that will be taken as mainshock and the previous mainshock will be foreshock.

      In this way aftershock is less dangerous than the mainshock. You are absolutely right that we should be prepared for both, though there is too less chance of another independent quake. As seismology can't be studied with physical background, we can only estimate with the previous earthquakes of the past. So this is not prediction. This is only a try to analyse past earthquake to estimate. After all what can we do except exchanging knowledge of each other in this crisis?

      I am not proven wrong here. The earthquake can be measured in magnitudes like ML, MB, MS and MW types. 6.8 is ML which is measured by Nepal Seismological Centre. 7.3 is MW which is according to USGS.

      You have said 0.6/0.7 above. I think you have seen it in the above screenshot. This is time not magnitude.

      If you have any questions let us exchange knowledge. Thank you again.

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  8. I can't help but come to the thinking that maybe the earthquake of 25th April or 12th May is a foreshock. Is this possible?

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  9. 12th May can't be foreshock because it was smaller than 25th. Since many days have passed, there is too little chance that 25th is foreshock.

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  10. ''3 Reasons Why We Can't Expect A Big Quake Today'' will be published at 9 PM. Don't forget to visit www.nationaldiscoverychannel.com today after 9 PM if you want to know the scientific reason why we are safe today despite experiencing only one aftershock in 24 hours.

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  11. You are saying that after a month, the chances of higher magnitude earthquake are lower after a month (may be it after shock or foreshock or anything), however the algorithm used by USGS shows that the chances of bigger earthquakes get higher after a month rather that within a month. Please check this out: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventproducts/us20002926/aftershock-statistics.pdf

    I also feel the data you have used is not enough and the analysis you have made is flawed.

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    1. Thank you for the comment. Yes I am still saying that chances of higher aftershocks are low after a month. USGS also says like this. There is vast difference between independent earthquake and aftershock. And I also agree that chances of higher magnitude earthquake are higher after one month. If you study my article deeply, you will find that the data of USGS exactly matches with my analysis.

      If you still feel that my analysis is flawed, please prove it with scientific point, I will definitely clarify again.
      please see the statement of USGS below
      http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/earthquakes/destruct/2006oct15/aftershockcontinue.html

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  12. We have felt just 2/3 aftershock since three days
    So what is next?!

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    Replies
    1. Read this
      http://www.nationaldiscoverychannel.com/2015/05/3-reasons-why-we-cant-expect-big-quake.html

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