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5/22/2015

3 Secrets of Nepal Earthquake That Scientists Did not Tell You

Last week, a commenter sent me a link online which said that an earthquake with more than 8 M would hit Nepal very soon. His link led me to a foreign website. I don’t know he was scientist or not but the website he recommended was scientific. I don’t know from where did he bring this link but someone had used the name and fame of United States Geological Survey to verify the claim. Though I had not trusted him, I wanted to read the article he recommended. The article had been written by some scientists. When I tried to read full story, I was taken to another webpage where I was asked to pay money. Then I understood the full story.

I know those Sci writers have bypassed 3 secrets. These 3 secrets can take Nepalese people from street to their home in a matter of a second. They will get sound sleep at night. They can come out of the mental trauma and the general life will begin within a minute. What are these secrets? Today I will not only tell those secrets but also give you scientific reasons behind them. Are you ready?

Secret No. 1
Aftershocks can not exceed the magnitude of the mainshock
The magnitude of the aftershocks can not be greater than the magnitude of the mainshock. 7.6 Ml is the exact magnitude of the mainshock stuck on 25 April in Nepal. All the earthquakes including 6.8 Ml of 12 May are the aftershocks of this mainshock. They are less than 7.6 Ml and always will be.

Yes, there was little chance of greater than 7.6 Ml earthquake provided that 7.6 becomes foreshock {If you don’t know what is foreshock, read this article}. But Nepal has already crossed the deadline of the foreshock. Typically, the foreshocks can happen in around 24 hours. So far we have already passed nearly 4 weeks. So the topic of foreshock is dead. USGS also has declared that now there is too less chance of large earthquake in Nepal. Neither is Nepal much vulnerable to the strong aftershocks in the future.

Secret No. 2
Independent earthquake is not expected in the same rupture zone
Simply, rupture zone is the area where aftershocks are appearing. Currently Gorkha, Dolakha, Kathmandu, Rasuwa, Nuwakot, Dhading etc are experiencing aftershocks. Having epicentre nearby, these areas shake more strongly with aftershocks. People are still scared of higher earthquake in these areas. Now the good news for them is that this current rupture zone can’t expect new independent earthquake. Because the stored energy of this area has been already released. The currently felt aftershocks are only the readjustment of the uneven plates beneath the crust which are less harmful. And they are the subjects to decline with time.

Source:Wikipedia

The above picture clearly says that Nepal has not experienced earthquake in the same region within a short time. There are many years gap.

Secret No. 3
Science has no way to predict exact time, place and magnitude of the earthquake
Have you heard scientists had already predicted this earthquake? If you had, don’t be surprised. This type of prediction was a long term prediction that even our illiterate grandmothers could do. Actually, the exact time, place and magnitude of the earthquake are always a mystery. There is no law, no instrument and no one that can predict the earthquake exactly. USGS also has accepted this fact.

But some scientists say that they had already predicted this earthquake. If they could, why did not they warn Nepal government to evacuate all houses before 11:56 of 25 April? The reality is that they were just preparing their report for the long term prediction of the earthquake risk in Nepal. It was just a coincidence that earthquake occurred just after some reports. Let me make it clearer.

See some major earthquakes of Nepal
Date          Mag                      Region
1934          8.0                         EDR
1980          6.5                         FWDR
1988          6.8                         EDR
2011          6.9                         EDR
2015          7.9                         WDR

Data source: Aljazeera

By analysing the above data, anyone can give a rough estimation that western parts of Nepal are more vulnerable for the earthquake. Because since 1980, this region has not experienced large earthquake. This is called seismic gap. Standing on this gap, some predicted that western parts of Nepal were going to face earthquake. If you reconsider the above data, that says that EDR experienced earthquakes serially. So no one can predict where earthquake will occur in the future. Neither is there answer of WHEN. Everything is a hoax.

At last, but not the least, I want to say that there may be exceptional cases in the history but what I want to emphasise that for the comparative prediction, earthquakes of different time and space must be similar with magnitude, intensity, types, etc. For example, Nepal earthquake 2015 got a big aftershock after 17 days. It does not predict that any oncoming earthquake of the world will experience similar pattern and there will be a large aftershock after 17 days. Because they may be different with magnitude, intensity, etc.
Have a safe life journey!
Discovered by Don Prince

{ Disclaimer: This post has been created to give relief to the people of Nepal who are fearful to the earthquake. It does not guarantee that there won’t be another large earthquake in Nepal.  Common people and the concerned authorities should be cautious towards the earthquake which is natural and may happen anywhere and any time.}

Please share it with people through social Medias as well as word of mouth.

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44 comments:

  1. Don Prince I love you so much for this post, as its good and more better than all the one I have read including that was on Times and other scientific sites. To be honest even the scientist in USGS was not helping. But I hate you at the same time. where were you when everyone here in Nepal is sleeping under tents and panicked like hell ? Thank you any way for this post and I hope by sharing this will send many of my friends to sleep in their own home and bed after a long time.

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    Replies
    1. Thank you Sunita ji for your appreciation. My next article about ''When will Nepal Aftershocks Stop?'' will be published after a few days. Hope you will read it. I am sure that will clean up rest of the doubts from your mind.

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  2. Thanks Don. This'll be very helpful to get rid from the rumors and associated fear. Great... well appreciated... !

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  3. Welcome Bishal ji and Susheel ji.

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  4. Thanks Don, a big relief. Waiting for next one.

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  5. Please please for your kind information let me remind you that USGS have not claimed or declared, "now there is no chance of large earthquake in Nepal. Neither is Nepal vulnerable to the strong aftershocks in the future." but instead they have said, "The potential for an aftershock larger than the mainshock remains, but is even lower with about a 1-in-1000 chance within this week. If an earthquake larger than the mainshock
    does occur, the USGS expects that it would most likely be about the size of the
    mainshock.There is no way to predict the exact date or time of an earthquake or aftershock.

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    Replies
    1. This is a big confusion among Nepalese people in Nepal. USGS does not say like that. I will clarify it in my next article.

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  6. Thanks Don for your insights !
    I am sure it will help many of us to get over the fear of the aftershocks or earthquake ....appreciate your post at this hour :-(

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  7. WOOOOW .. damn .. i should have read this earlier

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  8. thanks don ... really appreciate it...but with the incoming monsoon and seeing the dark clouds followd by lightning and thunder people really get scared...is there any relation between earthquake and thunder or rainfall or lightning???

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    Replies
    1. Official Science says there is no relation between earthquake and weather condition. I will write in detail later in my upcoming articles.

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  9. Thank You Very Much Don.....

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  10. Thank u very much for ur lovely concern to Nepalese peoples.

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  11. This has actually made me feel relieved!! Thank you :) :)

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  12. Thanks for your nice article on the topic of public concern. It is little late. Waiting your another article.

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  13. Thanks all for the comments.

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  14. Don thanks for your effort to get people out of the trauma. But as mentioned by Saroj above, I didn't see usgs claim that there will be absolutely no afterahock bigger than 7.8. If u search for usgs.gov aftershock advisory, u will get a PDF file which says that a big aftershock is possible but has very little chance, about .6 percent of more than 7 and .3 percent of more than 7.8. And this too I believe is based on statistical analysis rather than geological study. If u have found the claim by usgs, can u pls share the link?

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    Replies
    1. Gopal ji thank you for the comment. Yes I have already gone through all advisories of USGS. In next article, I promise I will clarify each and every part of USGS report. Please have a patience.

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  15. There is noway of being in relief. .. there is no guarantee of natural disaster. Kaligandaki has stuck already, this last night...-which was unpredictable before .. just the thing is we need to stay safe and be able to defend the problem every day and night, if u understand what I mean...

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  16. Thank you very much ... this article is really a big relief for us ...

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  17. After having been through number of analysis I am too skeptical that there are chances of larger aftershocks be it smaller than the main shock, but Don you have put some reservations that this is unpredictable like of many other analysts do ! How do you defend that your predication is more convincing than USGS report ? USGS has not ruled out significant aftershocks be it with a slim chances !

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    Replies
    1. Prakash ji, thank you for the interaction. As I have already mentioned above, I will explain everything in the next article, For your kind information, I have not ruled out USGS analysis. Now I can't write everything in this comment section. I hope you will come back to exchange knowledge after I publish my next article ''When will the Aftershocks of Nepal Stop?'' where I have already explained what you are commenting now.

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  18. Don prince,What about chile aftershock of m9.5 which was stronger than earlier quake

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    Replies
    1. That happened in around 24 hours of the earthquake. And that can be. I have mentioned in the article.

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  19. Thanks for the insight on the earthquake in Nepal.

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  20. really so relief.. Thank You dor this article.. :)

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  21. Eventually got relief from fear after reading your articles.
    #My personal opinion.

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  22. Big Relief from this article... Thanks Don Prince!!!

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  23. i really appreciate ur post broda but i ve one confusion still left that,american scientists have to say that 25th aprils earthquake was different than others n only 17% of the earth was quaked n still the research is going on
    please can u tell me more abt it??

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    Replies
    1. Manish brother I am researching on it. I will publish my report very soon. Keep on visiting this blog.

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  24. now no fear of earthquake in Nepal

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  25. Thanks for article but when will this aftershock stop

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    Replies
    1. I am writing another article on this question. Pleas wait a few days.

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  26. Thanks Don for this information

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  27. My sincere thanks for your encouraging article. By the way when will yr next article be released.

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    Replies
    1. Please go to the home page of this blog to read new article.

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  28. If the prediction would hav been told to the nepali govrn. And the citizens then all those 8,000 inocent people would hav been alive today

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  29. The article was very good and informative..to know

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  30. hahaha ......
    people are creazy..
    its mystrey so god protect the mystreys .. so people would not understand the thing if they understand everything, they may do wrong things foe selfish shake and ... people who exploite other will also face the return .... the hoaxes are used by secret societies to rule and take the advantages of destruction too ...

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    ReplyDelete
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