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Saturday, June 27, 2015

3 Things of Nepal Earthquake That Scientists Discovered are not Absolutely Right

Today I am going to write on 3 established concepts of scientists about Nepal earthquake which are not absolutely correct. These concepts have been further misunderstood by public which caused doubts and fears stay permanently on their mind. Let’s know the reality on time.

1. Nepal is an earthquake prone zone
Nepal has been enlisted in 11th number in the list of earthquake prone area of the world. Lying in the boundary between Indian and Eurasian plates, Nepal is said to fall under earthquake hazardous zones.

But the fact is different. According to the survey, 80% of earthquakes are recorded in the pacific ring of fire zone. 6% is recorded in Alaska. Nepal experiences less than 1% earthquakes of the world.

Photo Credit: worldatlas.com

2. Mega Earthquake is inevitable in Nepal
Nepal, sometimes, is mistakenly believed to be vulnerable to the mega earthquake. Many reports have been published on it. But is mega earthquake really possible in Nepal?

First of all I want to clarify the actual meaning of mega earthquake. Earthquake more than 10 M is mega earthquake{don’t be confused with great earthquake which is more than 8 M}. So far there is no recorded history of mega earthquake in the world. Chile Earthquake 1960 was 9.5 M which is the largest earthquake ever recorded in the world. For the earthquake more than 10 M in Nepal, the fault in the crust should be bigger than the area of Nepal itself. Is it possible? Moreover, there is no more than 8 M {sometime said 8.2 M} earthquake in the recorded earthquake history of Nepal.

3. Earthquake can frequently strike Nepal
As Nepal is experiencing earthquakes time to time {eg. 6.6 in 1988 A.D. and 6.8 in 2011 A.D.}, there is misconception that earthquake can frequently strike Nepal.

I have already said in my previous article that after a big earthquake, it takes long time to accumulate huge energy. Another earthquake larger than 7.8 M {occurred this year} can strike only if this is not Great Earthquake with around the size of 8 M. As 7.8 M is near 8 M, Nepal should wait for another century for such type of huge earthquake.  Because there is about a century gap between 2 Great Earthquakes in the past. Similarly, there is notable time gap for earthquakes more than 6 and 7 M.

This article specially emphasizes that there should never be unnecessary fear of the earthquake that can affect the general life.
Discovered by Don Prince

Saturday, June 13, 2015

Science Behind 25 Rumours of Earthquake

Last week, in Kathmandu I noticed our street overcrowded. It reminded me the strong aftershock of 12 May. After a few seconds I understood a big aftershock had been felt by people which I could not feel as I was walking on strong pitch road. After some steps, I saw a man staying on the balcony of a house. He said to all the walkers on the street, ‘’This earthquake came with loud sound. It means bigger earthquake is coming.’’ When I arrived my house, a woman said at the gate, ‘’Today big earthquake came. So we are outside.’’ I guessed it was a small jolt having epicentre in Kathmandu. I came inside my room and switched on my laptop and checked the aftershock record online. It was only 4 M and the epicentre was in Kathmandu. I heard another voice outside, ‘’The epicentre is in Kathmandu. Now the earthquake is very close to us. This place is in danger.’’

I am surprised we are facing aftershocks for more than a month, but we are still confused with miner things about aftershocks. This aftershock is felt to be big only because epicentre was in the local area. If we make a call to the people of other districts and asked them about it, then most of people will definitely respond that they did not even feel it. Because they are far from the epicentre. Talking about the sound, our ear is not so much capable to hear the sound of wave emerged below the crust. I mean we can’t hear the sound of earthquake wave. The sound which we hear during earthquake or aftershock is the sound of the buildings and their properties on the earth due to the earthquake tremors. And even 4 M earthquake may give experience of sound near the epicentre because it is more powerful than in the other places far from the epicentre. So earthquake along with sound is not the siren of the next big earthquake.

Similarly having epicentre in Kathmandu does not necessarily mean that the city is vulnerable to a big quake. Aftershocks occur in and around the rupture zone. As being in the rupture zone it is obvious that places like Kathmandu, Dolakha, Nuwakot, Rasuwa, Sindhupalchowk, etc will experience aftershocks. It does not mean they will get another big shock. Aftershocks do not move as we think. Aftershocks happen when the stored energy reaches threshold.


After this incidence, I decided to list out and explain the rumours I heard during my offline visit in different places. I have also included the questions readers asked me online. They go like this:

1. USGS statistic predicts earthquake
Many people mistakenly believe that USGS predicts earthquake. Most of the time USGS analysis report is misinterpreted. It happened in its greatest level in Nepal. When USGS showed 0.03% chance for big tremor and 99.07% confidence not to experience large tremor, it was misinterpreted. And the common people also followed 0.03% rather than 99.07%.


The analysis of USGS is ‘forecasting’ based on statistic. Statistic is not accurate. Anything proven statistically or mathematically won’t be accurate. We can prove a cup of tea to be a glass of wine mathematically. That does not mean that you have taken wine instead of tea. And also, there is difference between forecasting and prediction. Forecasting is long term estimation whereas prediction is accurate with time, space and level. USGS itself says that it focuses on long term forecasting of earthquake rather than the short term earthquake prediction.

2. Some animals can give signal of the earthquake
Some people have reported that animals can predict the earthquake. According to them, these animals show amazing behaviours before earthquake. There are some instances in China and Japan. So, most of the Chinese and Japanese scientists believe on this theory.


So far there is no repeated record to prove animals can give signal of the earthquake so that caution can be applied in the future. Such types of animals’ behaviours are confusing. But it is true that they can hear P wave sooner than humans. As only p wave can move through the fluids below the crust, it arrives first. So animals feel it and show amazing behaviour with the fear of earthquake. Later humans feel the earthquake.

3. Ground can open during earthquake
Many people fear ground can open and swallow them during earthquake. Can it be?


If you fall into the hole made by earthquake, the chances are high that you will jump out of it. If ground opens to swallow, there won’t be possibility of earthquake.

4. Earthquake can not strike at night
People often remain scared at night during aftershocks. But some people say that earthquake does not take place between 12 to 4 am. People also believe that earthquake can happen especially in the morning time.


Yes, there are less earthquake events in the time between 12 to 4 am and also earthquake is recorded more in the morning time. But there are some instances where earthquake has occurred during night hours. Earthquake has also taken place in the day time. Nowadays, you may also notice aftershocks happening at night in Nepal. If you can prove that earthquake is more likely to happen in morning and it is rare at night, then you can be an established scientist.

5. There is special kind of weather before earthquake
Some people say earthquake can occur in special type of weather. They also believe that earthquake does not occur in the rain. There are also many theories which claim special type of weather before earthquake.


Earthquake has struck in any type of weather. Statistics says that there is no special type of weather for earthquake. It can happen in any weather situation. So far no one has proven there is special type of weather before earthquake. Nepal has experienced some aftershocks with rain as well as powerful wind.

6. Snakes come out of the ground before earthquake
Some people said that snakes are appearing in some places before the earthquake. So they believe that this is the sign that another big quake is coming. Ultimately they spread fear of earthquake depending on the appearance of snakes.


The actual reason is that snakes come out of the ground when aftershock takes place. They are coming out side not because earthquake is coming, but because earthquake has taken place.

7. Earthquake can return
Most of the people believe earthquake returns again. So they fear till they are escaped in another big quake. But the reality is different.


I think this concept has been started after the earthquake of 1934 in Nepal. I guess the earthquake of 1934 {1990 BS} had experienced stronger aftershock. So people believed earthquake returns. But that type of earthquake after long time interval is strong aftershock. As there is possibility of strong aftershock depending on the size of the earthquake, people have misconception that earthquake has returned.

8. The rose ground should settle to the same position as before by another earthquake
There is belief that when the ground rose due to earthquake there will be another earthquake to settle them. They also think the rose part must be settled.


Do we need another earthquake to settle mountains which rose due to earthquake years ago? Obviously not. And the stressed part below the crust settles, not the surface.

9. Independent earthquake in another zone during aftershocks is the symbol of another big quake
Many people believe if there is another independent earthquake very far from the rupture zone during aftershocks sequence, this is sign of another earthquake in another place.


Earthquake takes place several times in a year. The new independent earthquake is also usual, natural and normal.

10. Earthquake less than 4 M is not recorded
Some people say earthquake below 4 magnitude is not recorded. Because they don’t find it through media and in official websites.


Earthquake less than 4 magnitude is also recorded but they are not flashed in some countries like Nepal as they are not harmful and they can’t be felt too. 

11. If all animals are killed, there won’t be earthquake
There is belief that Einstein said in his theory if all animals are killed, there will never be earthquake. Is that true?


This is based on pain wave theory which is not created by Einstein. People think that this is created by Einstein. Because the name of this wave is EPW, i.e., Einstein’s Pain Wave. The theory says that when animals are killed, their pain goes inside the crust as wave and they cause stress in the rock and eventually earthquake. But it is not proven.

12. Animal can speak before earthquake
Some people have reported that they found animals speaking about earthquake. Villagers in Nuwakot of Nepal have said that some animals spoke and said that big earthquake is coming.


Yes, it is true animals speak before earthquake. They speak not only before earthquake. All of us know animals always speak but we don’t understand what they speak.

13. Planets alignment can affect earthquake
Sometimes there is belief that the alignment of planet can cause earthquake. This concept had serious effect in California.


There is no evidence to prove the effect of planets alignment on earthquake. May be, it affect earthquake, but that can’t be issued reliably to predict earthquake.

14. Aftershocks are the symbols of another earthquake
Some believe that there is chance of big earthquake till aftershocks disappear. So they are anxious till aftershocks are stopped.


Aftershocks are normal after a big quake more than 7 M. It may take days, months and sometimes years to stop. They continue till the stresses created by main earthquake on the rocks are settled. They don’t mean chance of another earthquake.

15. Only 40% energy is released by mainshock
There is often belief after a big earthquake that a huge percentage of energy is still remained which can trigger another bigger earthquake. Some people estimated it during Nepal Earthquake 2015. They believed that 60% energy is stilled stored that may cause bigger quake.


Bigger blast is in the beginning. Smaller blast happens with aftershocks. If there is 60% energy left, that may cause foreshock {see also}event. But it did not happen in Nepal. In the other hand, if it is confirmed that still 60% energy is left that can trigger earthquake very soon, government could evacuate the cities and scientists could create manual earthquake by inserting fluids under the ground to increase stresses in the crust so that there is blast before people enter their houses.

16. Earthquake is caused due to fish staying under the earth
This is old saying that earthquake is caused because the earth is on the fish. When fish moves, the earth starts shaking.


We have complete glance of earth from the space. There is no fish below the earth. A scientist has asked a question in the past, ‘If earth is on the fish, where is the fish on?’

17. Humans are the cause of earthquake
Many people believe humans are responsible for earthquake. They specially link it with global warming and environmental degradation.


Humans are not the cause of earthquake. Earthquake happens naturally below the crust which is far from the human activities. However some human activities like extreme mining, use of maximum fluids, etc can cause earthquake.

18. High magnitude earthquakes are always dangerous
People often fear with high magnitude earthquake but they may not prepare for smaller quakes.


Earthquake is dangerous based on its intensity not magnitude. It depends on time and deepness of earthquake. Even smaller quakes may be dangerous if it is shallow type. In the other hand sometimes even high magnitude earthquakes are less dangerous if it is deep type and it has short time of shaking. Besides, aftershocks are less dangerous.

19. Earthquake can be predicted by astrology
Astrology becomes hot after big earthquake. People estimate time and magnitude of another earthquake using the knowledge of astrology. Common people easily believe if anyone claims that there will be another big earthquake. And they get more scared.


Is there any incidence where anyone really came ahead of the earthquake day using astrology and saved the people? If there is any astrologer who can predict earthquake with exact time, location and magnitude, he/she can be the renowned scientist of the world.

20. Horizontal quakes are more dangerous
Considering the sideways movement of houses during earthquake, some people believe that horizontal quake is more dangerous than vertical quake.


Vertical quakes are more dangerous than horizontal quakes. This is widely accepted fact.

21. Earthquake waves move equally in every direction
There is established belief that the wave of earthquake moves equally in all direction. There is popular example of pebbles throwing in the pond where waves move equally in all direction making circle.


The waves of earthquake may change direction according to the weakness of the rock. It happened during the earthquake of Nepal.

22. Earthquake can convert a place into a lake
Some believe earthquake can convert a place into lake. It is said during the earthquake in Nepal.


Is there any incidence of this kind in the history of the earthquake?

23. Earthquake can sink whole city
Many believe earthquake can sink city. Last month, California was said to sink in sea with earthquake which was proven completely wrong.


If there is any incidence like that, please let me know too.

24. Some people have Sense of earthquake
Some believe some can know the earthquake going to strike by using a special kind of sense.


USGS says it is unknown. There is no such kind of evidence where anyone has predicted earthquake by using any sort of sense.

25. Tectonic collision is the cause of the earthquake
There is wide spread consensus that earthquake takes place due to the slip or collision of tectonic plates.


It is based on tectonic theory which is one of the theories developed on how earthquake causes. But what is the real cause of earthquake is still unknown. We can compare this theory with the big bang theory of the universe. Big bang theory is one of theories developed to explain how universe began. But what is the secret behind the beginning of the universe is still unknown.

When a big earthquake strikes anywhere, possibilities are more that rumours begin. In the other hand there will be more chances that even scientific analysis will be misinterpreted and chaos and confusion appear uncontrollably. The best thing must do by the government and a conscious citizen is making people aware on time before the earthquake and rumours.

Sometimes new situation creates confusion. For instance, when the magnitude of the aftershocks suddenly increases and people suspect another earthquake. But the reality is that number of aftershocks decreases exponentially but the magnitude is still uncertain. If there are low magnitude aftershocks, the numbers are more {see this}. If there are high magnitude aftershocks, the numbers are less. Chances of higher magnitude aftershocks will be low with time. And then the aftershocks stop.

Now this is the time to exchange our knowledge with each other. Have you heard any kind of rumours or confusion? If you have heard any rumours and confusions, please mention them in the comment section below. You can also give scientific reasons for them. I will definitely try my best to give scientific reasoning from my side.
Discovered by Don Prince

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Next Saturday {20th June 2015}, we are publishing our most awaited article ‘‘3 Things about Nepal Earthquake That Scientists Discovered are Totally Wrong’’. If you do not want to miss it, download our app now.

Friday, June 12, 2015

What might be the Causes of Horror Experiences? (part 2)

When you are alone in home then you might hear some types of creepy sounds. I have explained these kinds of horror experiences and the scientific reasons of these experiences in my previous article “What might be the Causes of Horror Experiences?”. In that article I have proved you wrong by mentioning about illusion created by your subconscious mind. But in this article, I am not doing so. Rather, I am going to say that what you have been hearing in house when you are alone or at night is all true sound. Is it that scary? Don’t worry, I will explain in it of on the ground science.


When we are alone in home then we often hear some kind of tinkling sound from many parts of our house. In my case, I have often heard these kinds of sounds from grill of house’s windows, ceiling bulbs, doors, etc. It sounds so natural that anyone can come in fear. Anyone can believe that it’s something horror. It sounds like someone is throwing stone on the window but the sound is coming from the grills. “How can one hit stone from outside striking the grill despite the grill being inside the glass to the room?” This question was striking my brain. Then day by day I heard the same sound. I kept wondering at first. I heard the same kind of sound from the ceiling bulb too but there was no chance of someone hitting the stone at it which made me feel creepier. Then I closely observed the window frames, glasses, grills, doors, ceiling bulbs and all those things from which those tinkling sounds were heard. There was common thing that I observed in all those objects. Then due to that common thing, I got to know the cause and actual reason behind those tinkling sound. As the time passed, those tinkling sounds stopped gradually. Then what might be the reason behind it?


Due to the temperature variation and other different factors, there is certain kind of change seen in the objects. As heat is responsible for expansion and contraction of matters, if the temperature is high then the objects may expand and if temperature is low then objects may contract. Similarly, in case of window frames, same thing happens. Due to contraction and expansion of woods and grills caused by temperature variation, the knot which is fixed between grills and woods tends to move. Due to such movement in knot, there is collision between grill slot and knot due to which, tinkling sound is produced. Day by day such activities occur due to the same reason. In case of doors and ceiling bulbs too, same thing happens. Either screw or knot fixed in the object when moves with collision with other metal parts, then such tinkling sounds are produced. After some years, either the expansion or contraction of those objects reach to optimal level and the knot will not have any more tendencies to move as it becomes loose a bit. There is no collision any more to produce the tinkling sounds.

So, there is no matter to worry about such strange sounds in your home. They are all due to scientific reasons. No evil spirits exists to be responsible for such tinkling sounds in your home. If you have any queries regarding this matter then please comment below.
Discovered by Madhusudan Duwadi

Thursday, June 04, 2015

Reality Behind Recurring Earthquakes

The worst thing of the 12 May strongest aftershock of Nepal is that it gave an opportunity to the rumourmongers to spread fear of larger earthquake in public. And the matter of dismay is that people lost belief on seismologists without investigating the reality. Since earthquake is uncertain science, no one can say anything accurately. All they can do is recommending 'STAY SAFE' advice whatever they explain. However the seismologists of Nepal did not explain the event of 12 May clearly. It was their mistake. I hope this post will make everyone clear and then optimistic.

First of all I want to present some rumours similar to 12 May aftershock of Nepal. During earthquake crisis of Nepal, these rumours were hot weapons to spread the gas of fear, doubt and uncertainty in the community and they might be still used. I have chosen 5 major points in the form of my ready made dialogues which are similar to the actual talks of people in the society.

‘’Hi, how are you?”
‘’What to say? I am still stressed.’’
‘’But why? I think earthquake fear is over now.’’
‘’No, it’s not over. I have just watched on TV. Earthquake returned in Turkey in 2011’’
Point to be noted: Another big quake had rocked Turkey after the mainshock in 2011.
.................................................................................................................................................
 ‘’I think the earthquake has said good bye.’’
‘’Don’t say like that. Earthquake had reoccurred in Haiti after 8 days of the mainshock in 2010.’’
Point to be noted: Big aftershock hit Haiti after the mainshock in 2010.
.................................................................................................................................................
 ‘’Why are you worried? Now, don’t think about earthquake. It’s over.’’
‘’If you say like that you may fall in legal problem. Earthquake had returned in Italy in 2012.’’
Point to be noted: Another big tremor had rocked Italy after a big quake in 2012.
.................................................................................................................................................
‘’I think there is chance of bigger quake.’’
‘’No, it can’t be. There is no such event in the history of earthquake.’’
‘’Why not? Chile got bigger aftershock after the big quake in 1960.’’
Point to be noted: Bigger earthquake occurred in Chile making mainshock the foreshock in 1960.
................................................................................................................................................
 ‘’I am sure. We have to face big earthquake again.’’
‘’Is there any example like that?’’
‘’China got big shock after one year of the earthquake of 1975’’
Point to be noted: Another earthquake rocked China 1 year after a big tremor.
.................................................................................................................................................
Got confused? I know this is not first time you are hearing such type of rumours. But I am sorry to say THIS IS NOT RUMOUR. THIS IS TRUE.

Photo Credit: NSC

Wait, don’t get frustrated. These rumours are true but they are not enough to make us scared. Because the reality is different.

Reality behind recurring earthquakes

1. ''2011 Van Earthquake'' of Turkey was of 7.1 M. After 16 days 5.7 M aftershock was felt. And there was no bigger than 5.7 M again. I have already written that stronger aftershock may happen within 1 month period. So I don't think it was unusual.
..........................................................................................................................................................
2. ''Haiti earthquake 2010''  got 5.9 aftershock after 8 days of the mainshock. This aftershock also happened within 1 month period and no aftershock more than 5.9 took place later.
...........................................................................................................................................................
3. The ‘’2012 Northern Italy Earthquakes’’ had given 5.8 strongest aftershock after 9 days. This case is also similar to Turkey and Haiti.
.............................................................................................................................................................
4. It is true that ''1960 Valdivia earthquake'' {Chile} had experienced foreshock. The 9.5 M biggest earthquake of the world had occurred after 7.9 M deadly shock. But that happened within the period of 24 hours. I have already said that foreshock can happen typically within 24 hours and sometimes in 3 days. Yes, earthquake scientists may present exceptional cases where foreshock happened even after months and years but they are still debatable in scientists forum.
................................................................................................................................................................
5. Yes, another earthquake triggered in China after 1 year of the ''Haicheng Earthquake 1975'' {This earthquake had been predicted previously through foreshocks} but the epicentre distance between two earthquakes were 942.4 km which is bigger than the length of Nepal.
.................................................................................................................................................................
I bet no one can present any earthquake example which is unusual enough to prove that another earthquake crisis is coming. If you have found anywhere, you have done a great job. If you hear any rumour or you read any real history where earthquake is recurring breaking the general law of science, please write down in the comment. I am very happy to hunt the reality hidden behind the rumours and that will give you pleasure too.
Discovered by Don Prince

{This article is the result of the personal understanding of the author. You yourself are responsible for your thought}

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Wednesday, June 03, 2015

Are Witch Bites Real?

Being in Nepalese society, you might have certainly heard about the witch bites. But hold on for a moment and try to think, do witches really exist? If yes then where’s the proof? And if not then what about the bite marks that we often see on our body. There are many queries regarding witchcraft.

In Nepalese society, till now there exist many superstitious beliefs that we should anyhow try to remove them right from their root. Likewise, witchcraft is one of them. People blindly believe that witches really exist. Especially poor and widow women are blamed to be witch. As they are unable to fight back due to their weakness and lack of society support, they are treated very badly. In some places they are seen burnt alive. They are punished for no reason. If someone in such society is found ill, such helpless women are suspected to be witch and reason for the illness. Widow women are more found to be called witch in the society. People blame the woman to be reason for her husband’s death. They believe that she eats him alive being witch. How disgusting is that? How can a woman take the life of her own husband? It is believed that witch bites the person leaving the bruises (blue,black and red discoloration of skin). Is it even possible? If not then what might be the reasons for such bruises that we obtain on our body overnight?

There are various biological reasons for such bruises on our body. Bruises actually occur when small blood vessel present just inside our skin ruptures. When those blood vessels rupture, the blood gets pooled at there and gives blue/black/red color. Often children, old aged people and women are vulnerable to these kinds of bruises. They have very weak blood vessels which can rupture and tear at any time by even a gentle touch. Mostly bruises are found on arms and legs. Old aged people blindly believe in such witchcraft because they have very thin skin and weak blood vessel which can be easily ruptured and they get bruises very easily. They lack proper knowledge and they are unknown about the real facts. Some of them claim that they have seen witch in their real life. However, till now no any proof is found. In children too, same thing happens. They too have weak blood vessels which rupture easily and on the other hand unlike old aged people, children are found playing whole day hurting their body a lot due to which they easily get many bruises overnight. Uneducated parents hence think that it is due to witch bite. In case of women also, they do lots of household and kitchen works that they get bruises easily. Now let’s talk about adult ones. Adults have lots of responsibilities to take over to run the family. Psychological science has proven that bruises can occur even by emotional cause, tension, stress and even by problems like financial problems. These kinds of activities going on our brain can make our heart beat fast and not only that, it can make our body weak too. Over pressure of blood in blood vessel and weakening of those blood vessels is the perfect condition to rupture the vessel and get bruises. Even the microscopic damage in the blood capillaries can cause bruises. So, in my opinion there is nothing to fear when we get bruises.

But that’s not all. If you start to get bruises frequently even without any stress or exercise, there is matter to fear. Calm down! I'm not saying that it might be witch bite. It might be some kind of neurological disease. If you are having bruises frequently for many days then I suggest you to visit doctor as soon as possible but if you are sure that it is due to exercise or stress then it is okay.

In our society, there are many beliefs which are just hearsay. Not only about the bites of witch, but there are many other beliefs regarding the witchcraft. Some of them are funny too. They say that witches fly on broom at night time and travel here and there in search of their prey. Oh my god! Are they serious? It’s unbelievable. They haven’t left even animals free from their beliefs. Black cats are believed to be form of a witch. Isn't it too much?

There is nothing like witch in this world. All those fake talks are just superstitious beliefs. In our society, there are many witch doctors commonly named as dhaami/jhankri. Their profession is to make people believe in witchcraft and take profit. They hypnotize people in the name of witch and make them pay a huge amount to recover from such serious illness. In rural areas, if people suffer from any kind of disease, they take victims to witch doctors. Although they collect some fake proofs about witchcraft and try to make us believe them, we shouldn't believe in such things. Witchcraft is one of the social evil that badly exploits women in the society. They are blackmailed and controlled by society people for their own benefit.

Unless there is light of education in the society, such kind of superstitious beliefs will be prevailing in our society. There are many such illiterates in our society who blindly believe in such kind of hearsay. Being conscious people of the society it is our prime duty to uproot those kinds of evils from the society. So let’s light up the darkness of our society by light of science. Each and every superstitious belief in the past now is scientifically proven to be wrong. If you were the one to believe in such kind of hearsay then I hope that now you have been clear that there is no such kind of spirit like witch. I hope that you will try to fight back for those poor women who are blamed to be witch. If your family blindly believes such superstitious thing then it is your duty to make them clear about those things. We together can put effort to eradicate such evils. This blog is strictly against superstitious beliefs. So,  I request you to inform us about other superstitious beliefs prevailing in our society which you might think to be somehow true. Don’t stay in confusion. We will try our best to make you clear about those stuffs by convincing scientific explanations.
Discovered by Madhusudan Duwadi

Tuesday, June 02, 2015

Human Reactions and Reflexes in Daily life

In our daily life, there are many incidents which occur frequently but we don’t have time to think about the reason behind them or we just neglect them. Each and every incident that occurs in our life has scientific reason. In this article I am going to discuss about the human reflexes and reactions that our body exhibits during different situations.

Have you ever noticed how our body behaves when a fast moving object just passes close to us? How does our body react if a bullet passes next to our ear? How fast does our body react? Which organ of our body is responsible for that kind of reaction? Why does our body react in such a way? Let’s discuss the possible reasons behind them.

The autonomous nervous system is responsible for these kinds of involuntary reflexes. During such conditions, before the brain, the spinal cord does its work to order the body parts to react during the particular condition and then the brain gets to know what is really going on. In this type of condition, first of all our body reacts then only we will know the reason our body reacted. There is a different path for the transmission of such kind of reflex impulses and that specific path is known as reflex arc. During the emergency conditions in which the body should be protected at any cost, spinal cord works almost spontaneously to order the body parts even without the consent of brain. First of all, the sensory nerves take the impulses to the spinal cord through the reflex arc and then the spinal cord sends back the impulses in the form of motor impulse to the effector and then the body reacts. It just triggers the effected organ to take the defensive action anyhow to protect the body. Due to this type of reaction, our body is hence protected.

You might also have realized sometimes that our body comes in fear after the incident is over. You know that the danger is gone but also your body reacts. This late reaction is due to the late response of brain. When our brain detects danger then it will try its best to protect the body either fast or late. Same reaction is shown by the body either it is at the time of incident or just after the incident. For example, if a fast moving vehicle passes very close to you and you don’t see that vehicle at first but after the vehicle comes to your sight and then you realize that the vehicle was close enough to hit you then your body reacts in a protective way like bending the body abruptly in fear. If you would see the vehicle little bit before that circumstances then also your body would show same reaction. This is because the brain would give same command for specific type of defensive action. Same happens with the case of bullet passing next to the ear.


Have you ever noticed that you react just by the thought of danger approaching near even if it is not so? Let’s take the example of pricking pin. If a pin pricks your hand then you suddenly back off your hand and jerk it a bit as a reflex action to protect your hand. Likewise, if you get to know that a pin is about to prick your hand then also, even without being pricked you back off your hand in the same way to protect the hand. This proves that the brain commands same for specific type of defensive action. In this condition, the thought of being pricked and the thought of pain were the stimuli for the brain to react.

Let’s go to next condition. When a vehicle passes near to us and blows the horn, our body reacts abruptly and at last we realize what has happened actually. The reaction shown here is also a kind of reflex action. First of all, as soon as sound wave of horn enters the ear, the spinal cord orders the body to react and we react very fast and afterwards our brain gets the actual information about the incident. The brain then comes to know that it was the horn of the vehicle. From here it is clear that we react first and we know fact later after computation of brain. In this situation, our spinal cord reacts even without consent of brain but it works right. It is already fixed that if something produces a loud sound then it may be something very large and it may be approaching near us and can harm our body. So, spinal cord sends order so quickly that we don’t understand why we react at that time. Some of we claim that we are very brave enough to withstand any condition without fear but in actual practice we react a lot with fear when the creepy situation arises. It is something which is out of our will and brain’s control. What we want is our brain’s decision but reflex action is the task performed by the spinal cord, not the brain so no one can help it.

There are many other such circumstances in which our body shows such kind of reflex actions. Some of the examples of such reflex actions are sneezing, coughing, blinking of eyes, etc. All these type of reflex actions occur daily in our life and I don’t think their mechanisms should be explained for being very common. Our body reacts in this way to escape from the possible damage to us. In such situations nobody has time to think wisely and to decide what to do and what not to do. Suppose if you accidentally keep your hand in boiling hot water, you won’t have time to think for what to do. You will abruptly remove your hand from the water. If a street dog starts barking and chasing you, instead of thinking for a while and picking a stone, you will start to run as fast as you can even though you can’t beat the speed of the dog.

As everything in this world has some exceptions, it is also not out of them. If you are sure that the dog may start to bark at any moment and you are pre-planned like if a dog barks at you then you will throw stone at it then you may not run as an effect of reflex. For the things you are ready to face with are out of reflex action. For an easy example, you remove your hand if a syringe pricks your hand as a reflex action as mentioned above but think for a while, do you remove your hand in same way while a nurse gives you injection by a pricking syringe? It is because you are ready to face the pain of pricking injection for your treatment. Haven’t you ever gone through the condition in which you bleed from your hand or legs accidentally and you are not known about it? It might happen when you are making your brain too much busy either by a deep thought or tension. And as soon as your brain realizes that you are bleeding, you start to feel the pain of the wound. I hope now you are clear about the reflex actions.

Let me give you an idea to skip your pain from certain part of your body for a while. You may be already known of this fact but also if you don’t know then it will be easy at some situations of your life. It is about diverting the concentration of your brain from one point to another. Suppose you are bleeding a lot from your hand and you want to get relief from that pain at least for a while then all you need to do is to put some pressure in same area of hand little bit far from the wound so that the concentration of brain goes to the pressurized area of hand rather than the wound. You can press even other parts of your body to divert the brain. I hope it may be helpful in your future if you get any wound.

Likewise, there are many situations we have to face in our life. We go though many conditions in our daily life which have their specific scientific reasons but we are unknown about them. If you also have gone through strange conditions about which you are wondering for the scientific reason then please inform us. We will try to give you your answer in convincible scientific explanations.
Discovered by Madhusudan Duwadi

Monday, June 01, 2015

Now Aftershocks are Saying Good Bye Nepal

Actually I was starting this ‘Science of Earthquake’ series from tomorrow. But the newly emerged situation compelled me to write this blog immediately.

As the title of this post speaks itself, now the aftershocks are packing up to say good bye to us. And I am very surprised it is happening exactly what I estimated in my previous post. Now I can believe that with the change of unusual weather, earthquake also has left us dropping inerasable print on our mind.

But some people are a bit doubtful today. When I formulated ‘lower the frequencies, higher the magnitude’ formula, most of people believed me. Thanks to all. Whenever this formula created confusion, I responded though another article so that no rumour spreads based on it. Today I am doing the same duty again.

The frequencies of aftershocks have declined nowadays. Day before there were 3 aftershocks. Yesterday there was only one. And today also till I am writing this blog, we have experienced only one aftershock. So are we going to face a big tremor again?

If you have gone through all of my articles, then you might have already got the answer of this question. However I am explaining again. These decreasing aftershocks are not leading us towards a big earthquake. There are two reasons:

1. One month deadline of 25 April mainshock has passed.
2. 2 weeks deadline of 12 May aftershock also has passed

Did not understand? If you want to understand this theory in detail, you can visit my previous post. Here it is available.

Photo Credit: NSC

There may be a bit bigger aftershock around 4.5 or 5.5 but they are not harmful. And the reason behind that kind of a bit bigger aftershock is decline of the frequency. I have already told that aftershocks with lower magnitude are more likely to occur frequently. Oppositely aftershocks with higher magnitude are more likely to occur occasionally. However, we can also expect all aftershocks less than 4.5 in the coming days. Because final clean up may be going on below the crust, then it is obvious to have small aftershocks than the large ones.

{This is the personal opinion of the author written so as to exchange knowledge about earthquake which is not verified by the official science}
Discovered by Don Prince

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Friday, May 29, 2015

When Will Aftershocks Stop In Nepal?

After being struck physically and psychologically with 20,000 aftershocks in the last month, people are recovering slowly in Nepal. Though they still count aftershocks, finally they assume aftershocks easy as much as they can take it. Now all of them have got a same question on mind, ‘’When will aftershocks stop in Nepal?’’ But no one has given the answer. Regarding this question even Google is silent. So I have decided to fill this gap.

In my previous article, I explained why you should not worry about large earthquake. In the second, I told there may not be any chance for another stronger aftershock. In this article I will tell you why you can take these small aftershocks easy. Besides, I am trying my best to satisfy your query ‘When are these aftershocks going to stop?’

What are aftershocks?
Everyone knows what aftershocks are. However for refreshment and formality let me define it again. After large earthquake, the tectonic plates which collide together to cause initial earthquake continue to readjust the stress along the fault, that results aftershocks.

Aftershocks frequencies have increased in the recent days. Are we going to face another stronger aftershock?
If large aftershock is going to rock, aftershocks will be building. If they are decaying, the aftershocks are doing final clean up to stop adjusting the plates. Nowadays the frequencies of the aftershocks have increased again. So people are fearful of the larger tremor. But you should not worry because they are small. Small aftershocks occur more frequently than the large ones. They are not building. If aftershocks had built up, their magnitude would have grown up significantly.

Why are the aftershocks of Nepal so longer?
The earthquake sequence of Nepal was following the Omori’s law in the beginning. They were declining exponentially and were going to be ended very soon. But it seems that the second large tremor of 12 May has started its own sequence of aftershocks which has made the periods of aftershocks longer.

When will these aftershocks stop?
Aftershocks are uncertain. They may continue for weeks, months and sometimes years according to the earthquake size. The larger the earthquake, the longer the aftershocks. The declining aftershocks are inversely proportional to the amount of time passed since the mainshock. It ends when it reaches to the pre earthquake level. So we should not think when aftershocks will stop. We should think when they will decline up to the pre earthquake level. Because when they are notably less, they are similar to stop. After all scientists are still debating whether aftershocks are different from earthquake or not. So the question should be ‘’When will the aftershocks go to the pre earthquake level?’’ It should not be ‘When will aftershocks stop?’ or something like that.

Photo Credit: USGS

When will these aftershocks go to the pre earthquake level?
But when will these aftershocks go to the pre earthquake level? As these aftershocks are aftershocks of the aftershocks, they are expected to reach the pre earthquake level very soon.

Aftershocks can be predicted statistically not accurately. Statistic can’t predict exact time, space and magnitude. So statistic analysis can’t calculate when aftershocks will stop. However I have tried to estimate for how long these aftershocks will survive. But it is my rough estimation.

I have seen the span of these aftershocks in 3 perspectives:

According to Historical Pattern
If we need to find out the similar earthquake to estimate aftershocks time of Nepal, 2010 Haiti Earthquake is recommendable. Unlike Nepal, Haiti Earthquake was also shallow type with the depth of 13 km. The magnitude was 7 M. Accordingly we can estimate that the aftershocks of Nepal will decline tremendously after a few days.

According to United States Geological Survey
USGS expects only 6 aftershocks for this month. For the year it predicts 15 aftershocks. According to this analysis we can guess that aftershocks will be too rare to notice after 1week.

According to My Own Law
I have made a small attempt to develop a new statistic which says that the aftershocks of Nepal are decaying and it will be occasional after 2 weeks.

My law is still under observation. Till now, this  is my personal understanding which I am using to relieve myself {as I am also one of the Nepalese suffering from this situation} and I am sharing it with you only to provide a hope.

You also may have researched when aftershocks will stop in Nepal. Either you must have your own idea. You can share it with us by writing your opinions in the comment section below.
Discovered by Don Prince

{Disclaimer: This post has been created to give relief to the people of Nepal who are fearful to the earthquake. It does not guarantee that there won’t be another large earthquake or strong aftershock in Nepal.  Common people and the concerned authorities should be cautious towards the earthquake and its aftershocks.}

This article is a part of Earthquake Relief Articles series. Please share it through social media and word of mouth with as many people as you can so that everyone can get relief from the fear of earthquake.

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Wednesday, May 27, 2015

2 Reasons Why Nepal Can’t Expect Stronger Aftershock

Introduction
We Nepalese learnt a big lesson on 12th May. It was really a surprised tremor for us that taught us whether we should remain cautious all the time as earthquake is natural and random process. This event has verified the scientific concept that the frequency of aftershocks decreases with time but intensity does not decline permanently. But it does not mean that chances are higher for another 12th May.  In my views, there is less than 0.01% probability of another stronger aftershock in Nepal.

2 reasons why we can’t expect stronger aftershock

General Patterns of Aftershocks
Though every earthquake is different, the average statistics accepted worldwide are 1 aftershock 1 M and 10 aftershocks 2 M less than the mainshock. Following this rule, Nepal is expected to experience 1 aftershock of around 6.6 Ml and 10 aftershocks of around 5.6 Ml. Because the mainshock was 7.6 Ml. According to the NSC, Nepal has already experienced about 3 aftershocks of 6.6 Ml or more than 6.6 Ml and about 9 aftershocks of 5.6 or more than 5.6 Ml. Similarly we faced 7 aftershocks of 5.5 Ml which are much closed to 5.6 Ml. Besides, 4 weeks average period to decrease aftershocks of a mainshock recommended by an analysis of USGS also has ended. Now we can freely say that we have already passed this level.

Aftershocks of the Aftershock
Though mainshock releases maximum strained energy, rest of the energy still remains stored till they reach their threshold. So, aftershocks of different magnitude happen for some days, weeks, months and sometimes even years. When strongest aftershock occurs, it triggers its own aftershocks sequences which we call aftershocks of aftershock. So we can estimate that as aftershocks can’t be stronger than the mainshock, aftershocks of aftershock also are weaker than the main aftershock. This is the reason we can’t expect another aftershock more than 6.8 Ml because this is the exact intensity of the earlier strongest aftershock.

Ok, we are not going to be hit by stronger aftershock. Then do we have to face aftershock around the size of 6.8 Ml? As aftershock more than 6 Ml is enough to cause damage, this question may arise on your mind.

Though it’s my personal analysis, l am trying to link it with the rule of the general pattern of the earthquake. Once again, the rule is 1 aftershock less than 1 M and 10 aftershocks less than 2 M of the mainshock. As you know that the size of the strongest aftershock was 6.8 Ml, we can expect 1 aftershock of 5.8 Ml and 10 aftershocks of around 4 Ml.  Now once again let’s check the record of NSC in its official website. After 12 May, we faced 3 aftershocks of 5.8 or more than 5.8 Ml and 21 aftershocks between 4.5 to 5 Ml. Haven’t we passed the next level too?

 I  believe that time also could be estimated as less than 15 second for that strong aftershock as first mainshock was around 52 seconds and the strongest aftershock was about 30 seconds, declining with around half percent. Also we can consider 2 weeks periods for another strong quake {but less than 5.8 Ml} because these aftershocks were decaying more exponentially in comparison of the aftershocks of the mainshock. And I am very happy to remind you that we have passed 2 weeks {12 May to 26 May} period too.

nepal-earthquake

Conclusion
Actually strongest aftershock like 12 May was not totally abnormal according to some scientists. As we may expect 1 M less aftershock exactly after 24 hours of the mainshock, the strongest aftershock after some days was also inevitable. For instance, Haiti experienced 5.9 M strongest aftershock after 8 days of 7 M mainshock. There are many other examples. Nepal has already faced strongest aftershock of 6.8 Ml after 17 days of the mainshock on 12th May. Aren't we safe now?
Discovered by Don Prince

{Disclaimer: This post has been created to give relief to the people of Nepal who are fearful to the earthquake. It does not guarantee that there won’t be another large earthquake or strong aftershock in Nepal.  Common people and the concerned authorities should be cautious towards the earthquake and its aftershocks.}

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Friday, May 22, 2015

3 Secrets of Nepal Earthquake That Scientists Did not Tell You

Last week, a commenter sent me a link online which said that an earthquake with more than 8 M would hit Nepal very soon. His link led me to a foreign website. I don’t know he was scientist or not but the website he recommended was scientific. I don’t know from where did he bring this link but someone had used the name and fame of United States Geological Survey to verify the claim. Though I had not trusted him, I wanted to read the article he recommended. The article had been written by some scientists. When I tried to read full story, I was taken to another webpage where I was asked to pay money. Then I understood the full story.

I know those Sci writers have bypassed 3 secrets. These 3 secrets can take Nepalese people from street to their home in a matter of a second. They will get sound sleep at night. They can come out of the mental trauma and the general life will begin within a minute. What are these secrets? Today I will not only tell those secrets but also give you scientific reasons behind them. Are you ready?

Secret No. 1
Aftershocks can not exceed the magnitude of the mainshock
The magnitude of the aftershocks can not be greater than the magnitude of the mainshock. 7.6 Ml is the exact magnitude of the mainshock stuck on 25 April in Nepal. All the earthquakes including 6.8 Ml of 12 May are the aftershocks of this mainshock. They are less than 7.6 Ml and always will be.

Yes, there was little chance of greater than 7.6 Ml earthquake provided that 7.6 becomes foreshock {If you don’t know what is foreshock, read this article}. But Nepal has already crossed the deadline of the foreshock. Typically, the foreshocks can happen in around 24 hours. So far we have already passed nearly 4 weeks. So the topic of foreshock is dead. USGS also has declared that now there is too less chance of large earthquake in Nepal. Neither is Nepal much vulnerable to the strong aftershocks in the future.

Secret No. 2
Independent earthquake is not expected in the same rupture zone
Simply, rupture zone is the area where aftershocks are appearing. Currently Gorkha, Dolakha, Kathmandu, Rasuwa, Nuwakot, Dhading etc are experiencing aftershocks. Having epicentre nearby, these areas shake more strongly with aftershocks. People are still scared of higher earthquake in these areas. Now the good news for them is that this current rupture zone can’t expect new independent earthquake. Because the stored energy of this area has been already released. The currently felt aftershocks are only the readjustment of the uneven plates beneath the crust which are less harmful. And they are the subjects to decline with time.

Source:Wikipedia

The above picture clearly says that Nepal has not experienced earthquake in the same region within a short time. There are many years gap.

Secret No. 3
Science has no way to predict exact time, place and magnitude of the earthquake
Have you heard scientists had already predicted this earthquake? If you had, don’t be surprised. This type of prediction was a long term prediction that even our illiterate grandmothers could do. Actually, the exact time, place and magnitude of the earthquake are always a mystery. There is no law, no instrument and no one that can predict the earthquake exactly. USGS also has accepted this fact.

But some scientists say that they had already predicted this earthquake. If they could, why did not they warn Nepal government to evacuate all houses before 11:56 of 25 April? The reality is that they were just preparing their report for the long term prediction of the earthquake risk in Nepal. It was just a coincidence that earthquake occurred just after some reports. Let me make it clearer.

See some major earthquakes of Nepal
Date          Mag                      Region
1934          8.0                         EDR
1980          6.5                         FWDR
1988          6.8                         EDR
2011          6.9                         EDR
2015          7.9                         WDR

Data source: Aljazeera

By analysing the above data, anyone can give a rough estimation that western parts of Nepal are more vulnerable for the earthquake. Because since 1980, this region has not experienced large earthquake. This is called seismic gap. Standing on this gap, some predicted that western parts of Nepal were going to face earthquake. If you reconsider the above data, that says that EDR experienced earthquakes serially. So no one can predict where earthquake will occur in the future. Neither is there answer of WHEN. Everything is a hoax.

At last, but not the least, I want to say that there may be exceptional cases in the history but what I want to emphasise that for the comparative prediction, earthquakes of different time and space must be similar with magnitude, intensity, types, etc. For example, Nepal earthquake 2015 got a big aftershock after 17 days. It does not predict that any oncoming earthquake of the world will experience similar pattern and there will be a large aftershock after 17 days. Because they may be different with magnitude, intensity, etc.

So running after rumours can’t help. Studying and thinking generously can give relief.    
Have a safe life journey!
Discovered by Don Prince

{ Disclaimer: This post has been created to give relief to the people of Nepal who are fearful to the earthquake. It does not guarantee that there won’t be another large earthquake in Nepal.  Common people and the concerned authorities should be cautious towards the earthquake which is natural and may happen anywhere and any time.}

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