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What Happened to the Aftershocks of Nepal?

I agree with you if you think that the defined title of this blog seems to be very cool. Really, what happened to the aftershocks of Nepal? The question itself answers that Nepal has not experiencing aftershocks for a long time.

The concern of earthquake has recently overshadowed in Nepal due to the ongoing political hot issues, i.e., promulgation of constitution through constituent assembly, movement in terai, undeclared blockade by neighbouring country and formation of the new government.  However, aftershocks have tried to drag the attention of people time to time. See the screenshot below:

The record shown on the screenshot above says that the aftershocks are still going on but they have decreased exponentially from the month of September. According to this data the general gap between two aftershocks is around one week. This gap is in the process of increasing ahead. In the coming months aftershocks are expected to appear only after a long gap and also in a few numbers. However, it is estimated that aftershocks take more months to stop completely. Because last two aftershocks were 4.6 and 4.5 magnitudes which are still big in size.
Discovered by Don Prince

White Tiger in Nepal

An initiative research has shown that the white tiger, one of the extinct species of the world might have existed in the forest of terai region of Nepal. The extinct animal may be scientifically documented if the research is done by fixing the CCTV cameras in the forest of Nepal.

The modern history of Nepal theoretically records that Jung Bahadur Rana, the first prime minister of Ranarchy had seen the white tiger while his hunting time in Rautahat district of Nepal. But the then uneducated society had taken this incidence as the effect of ageing on Jung Bahadur Rana.

One of the most famous novels titled ‘Seto Bagh’ notably represents the incidence of Jung Bahadur’s sight on white tiger. The title of the novel has been defined after this animal. The novel was written by Diamond Shumsher who was an established writer of Nepal.

Mr. Diamond Shumsher is known for his creation in historical stories. He especially tells the story of Rana family. He himself was from Rana family. And it is said that he was disliked in his family for writing about them. Recently the ‘Seto Bagh’ novel has been filmed in Kollywood which has got huge audience in theatres.

White tiger is still taken as a hoax in Nepal. Few people know white tiger is not a character of illusion and stories only. The white tiger actually exists on the earth. Particularly they are from India. May be they are found in Nepal too. Jung Bahadur’s encounter of white tiger is a hint.
Discovered by Don Prince

7 Oddities Earthquake May Hit Western Nepal

How did it begin?
Unlike aftershocks, rumours of another big earthquake are still hitting Nepal.  This time, western part of Nepal has become hotter. Since earthquake of any part of the country can affect Kathmandu, the valley is again full of anxiety. I got request from some people to study on the possibility of earthquake in western Nepal. Some of my virtual friends also poured interest on my write ups. After 1 month research, I am here to publish my findings.

If you have read my previous articles on Nepal Earthquake, I know, you may think that I am going to say that there is no need to be stressed about earthquake in western Nepal. The topic of this article also refers it. If so, you are absolutely right. Wait, do not close it. I will give you strong logics. Let’s begin it from the button line.

Why was western Nepal taken as highly vulnerable to earthquake in near future?
Scientists have been warning for more than 30 years that western Nepal {west from Pokhara} may record huge earthquake which may have capacity to be the size of more than 8 Magnitude. This prediction has been made depending on the fact that the region has not experienced earthquake since 1505 AD.

What’s new the Scientists say about this risk?
Now some scientists say that the earthquake of 25 April had not relieved all stress. Now the remaining stress has shifted in the western part increasing the possibility of earthquake more seriously.

Is it true that the remaining stress has shifted to the western Nepal?
It is true that the energy released from the earthquake of 25 April did not come out completely. But I do not believe that the stress has gone to the western part. The reasons are:

a. This earthquake occurred in the eastern segment of the MFT fault {east from Gorkha}. That means the earthquake ruptured in the east which reached up to Dolakha district and stopped. But it had not gone towards western segment of the fault {from west of Pokhara to north of Delhi}. In this condition, is not it ridiculous to say that the stress has been stored in the western part of the country? It is similar to say that the river which flew from north to south made embankment in the northern part.

b. According to the worldwide concept observed by seismology, the earthquake or aftershock of one place can transform energy only up to little km distance from the epicentre. I think, if the stress had moved in the west that could have caused another earthquake within 3 days making 25 April a foreshock. If not, at least, that might have caused notably numerous small earthquakes in the west even today.

c. Had energy shifted to the west, the aftershocks would have stopped so far. But the aftershocks are still going on because the energy had not shifted to the west. Rather it is scattered below the crust and it is still releasing in form of aftershocks. This is the reason the aftershocks patterns are different in Nepal. This is my personal opinion.

d. All of us know that it is possible to estimate the stored energy through technology. And the scientists have claimed that the technology has proven that extra stress has been added in the western fault. But to confirm so, first they should have measured the energy stored in that place before the 25 April and reduced that energy from the energy stored today and then the remaining will be the added energy by this earthquake. Have they done so? I don’t think so. If not, it is only a business stunt.

So we can conclude that we cannot believe that the stress has gone to western part to increase the possibility of earthquake there.

Is it true that the energy has been locked in western Nepal for 500 years?
It is not sure for how long but it is true that the energy might have been locked in western Nepal for a long time. There are two proofs:

a. Practical proof: The statistics derived from the highly technological GPS stations have shown it.

b. Theoretical proof: The western Nepal is facing smaller earthquakes frequently before and after the 25 April event. This is my personal analysis.

The oddities earthquake may hit western region
We may say that this western region has not experienced big earthquake from 200-500 years. However it may not produce in near future. The possible reasons are:

a. Earthquake faults are not uniform everywhere. Some faults have smaller events whereas some faults have larger earthquakes.MFT {Main Frontal Thrust} has both large and small events. I think eastern segment of MFT has no smaller events. But it has large earthquake like 25 April. And the western segment of the fault has many smaller events which are postponing larger earthquake. So eastern parts are facing big earthquake and western parts have many small earthquakes that have prevented big ones from ages. Look at the following chart.

b. The second estimated reason is that the western part of the fault has several physical barriers {seismic barriers} along the fault.  Some scientists say that these barriers are the cause earthquake did not move towards west. It stopped to the east in Dolakha because that is the edge of this fault. Study says the larger aftershocks are likely to strike at the edge of the fault. So May 12 may have happened there. I think these seismic barriers {segmented faults} are the causes western parts are not experiencing large hit. Instead it is facing smaller events. The energy is not stored hugely but it is divided in different segments. So it cannot be larger. If it is true it makes the energy shift concept more critical. If there is barrier, energy cannot shift.

c. The energy stored in the fault could have been steadily released through fault creeping. That means energy is being leaked slowly due to slide of the fault instead of cracking and producing an earthquake. If so it takes more than an estimated time to face a big earthquake. Or maybe, there would never be a big jolt. Because they are released through thousands of micro quakes. San Andreas Fault of California is one of its examples. The creeping segment of the San Andreas has not seen a large earthquake despite storage of huge energy qualified for a big earthquake. Is it happening in Nepal too? The research should be done. In my opinion, energy is definitely creeping in western fault of Nepal. But it is not being observed. Because they are not reaching surface like the huge hit of 25 April.

d. The bearing capacity of the rock of western Nepal may be strong. As energy may not have reached the threshold, the earthquake might have been postponed. If it is so there will be little doubt. But it is less likely. Because there are many earthquakes recorded in the seismograph every month.

e. It has been just 1 century we humans have started recording the earthquake. So we cannot say when earthquake occurred last time in the western segment of the MFT. What are the basis people claim this place is silent from 500 years? History is not enough to explain it. May be this place has seen earthquakes after 1505 AD too. And also, what is the strong base to believe that the energy which is not exploded since June 6, 1505 A.D. will be blasted in this decade?

f. This long term prediction of earthquake is based on the seismic gap theory. This theory is still controversial. Some foreign experts say that though tectonic move rate is similar, the method of energy release is different. So the earthquake does not necessarily repeats as happened before. Similarly, some Nepalese experts are saying that this theory has been designed especially in the area where continental plates and oceanic plate collide. But in the case of Nepal, the earthquake is caused due to collision of both continental plates, i.e., Eurasian plate and Indian plate. Moreover, the theory has yet to be studied in the Himalayan area like Nepal.

g. Every earthquake is different. Comparing one earthquake with another may work only as a reference. Earthquake taking place after a seismic gap in one place does not mean that same is going to happen in another place too.

What is the conclusion?
The 1505 earthquake has caused seismic barrier in western fault. So earthquake is not big there. But Eastern segment has no physical barrier. There is less small earthquake but a big event. Western Nepal has more small earthquakes and big one is unusual. 25 April released the strain at the eastern end. So this area can be taken as a safe place for some years. Moreover May 12 earthquake {aftershock} has ended the chance of big earthquake recently in the eastern part. But Western part should be observed continuously. If less {small} earthquakes occurred there, threat should be considered. Statistics say that eastern part time to time may face some bigger earthquakes {less than 7 M}. But every century it may cause a huge earthquake of around 8 M. But the time interval as well as the magnitude is also decreasing. In previous time it was about 8.2 with 100 years gap. It decreased in this year. Now may be after 50 years with less than 7.8 M. If it is so, this segment is also never going to face big earthquake greater than 7.8 M.

Final Words
Earthquake is still a mysterious science. We humans actually do not know the real cause of the earthquake. However tectonic theory is widely used. In my opinion, Tectonic Theory of Earthquake is similar to Big Bang of the Universe. Unlike big bang, tectonic theory is also partially controversial. Actual cause of the earthquake is still unknown. So the best thing to do is to follow the preventive measures of earthquake on time. Special attention should be given by the government. As Nepal is one of the most sensitive earthquake hazardous zones of the world, the government should give more priority for the research of earthquake..

Disclaimer: This article is the personal opinion of the author. It has been shared only for educational purpose. The author and National Discovery Channel are not liable to any personal or institutional decision made on the basis of it.
Discovered by Don Prince

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Bhimeshawar Had Already Warned People about Earthquake

We have recently discovered an overshadowed fact about ‘’Nepal Earthquake 2015’’ which is backed by religion. This is related to the Bhimeshawar Temple, one of the most popular and sacred religious destination in Dolakha district of Nepal.

Dolakha Bhimsen Temple is famous for many spiritual specialities. The most amazing thing is that the idol of Bhimsen God sometimes sweats. The traditional belief says that something bad happens in the country in the year the idol sweats. Notably, the idol had sweated just some months before the devastating earthquake stroke Nepal in this year.

Mrs Parbati Raut, one of the inhabitants of Dolakha says to National Discovery Channel, ‘’This time, sweat rolled down from the head of the idol. So everybody was confused whether it was a good sign or a bad sign for the country. There was local belief that the effect will be seen within 6 months. And the earthquake hit Nepal before the deadline.’’ In the past it has been recorded that if sweat rolls on the right side, bad will happen and if it rolls on the left, fortune will follow.

Many major events had been recorded  in the past after Bhimsen idol sweats. Another notable thing is that it happened even before the terrible earthquake of 1990 BS.

After sweating, there is a tradition in which the head of the state sends special offering with cash at the temple. In the other hand the temple areas will be flooded with the devotees believing that Bhimeshawar fulfils their wish during sweating.

Dolakha Bhimeshawar has been highlighted by different national and international media time to time. Kantipur daily of Nepal had published special report on the sweating events. In 2013, our guest discoverers Mr. Binod Basnet and Mr. Sirish Khadka had made a report  on Bhimeshawar.

We are not saying sweating event of Bhimeshore is the cause of earthquake. People of Dolakha says that Bhimsen God tries to warn people about the bad event of future by sweating. We want to draw attention of everyone that each and every aspect including religious aspect should be considered while studying the possibility of earthquake in Nepal.
Discovered by Don Prince and Prem Darshan

Aftershocks are Settling Exponentially We are Completely Safe

Day before yesterday I said in ''Prince's Law of Aftershock: the Biggest Secret of Aftershock Revealed'' that a strong aftershock of 4.8 M is going to strike. Yesterday exactly 4.8 M hit Dolakha district of Nepal. I was not surprised while I was listening news about this aftershock in today's morning. But I have not even thought it will happen so quickly.

As all of my calculations matched in the past, now I can surly say to myself that the severely affected earthquake zones like Kathmandu, Dolakha, Sindhupalchowk, Dhading, Nuwakot, etc. are now completely safe provided that there won't be another independent earthquake out of this rupture zone. Moreover, this quickly occurred 4.8 M aftershock has given a sign that the aftershocks are settling very fast. Otherwise I was expecting this aftershock at least after 10 days. However the aftershocks may still last up to next 6 months. But after some months, when aftershocks magnitude will be less than 4 M, it is hard to feel that aftershocks are still going on. Only the scientists and technicians who are measuring earthquake will know it.

'' So then the upcoming strongest aftershock is 4.7 M as you said it is decreasing with the rate of 0.1 M in your article.'' Today someone asked me this question. I said, '' No, we can not say like that. There is certain law but that goes differently. To know what will happen in future, we have to wait till another biggest aftershock {that may not be more than 4.8} hits. I guess next biggest one is 4.7 M because I think this pattern will continue till it declines up to 4 M. But I can definitely say the aftershock will come very soon.

As you know that after the strongest shock, another shock about 1 M less will hit exactly after 24 hours, it can be said that an aftershock with about 3.8 will hit in around 12 o'clock night today. Moreover it is sure that more aftershocks will be experienced for some days.

Today in the afternoon, while I was writing this post an aftershock with 3.8 hit Kathmandu which has made me doubtful. If it is the aftershock which I am expecting in around 12 o'clock at night today, I can say that now the aftershock  has taken another turn. And it is not a negative sign.
Discovered by Don Prince

Prince's Law of Aftershock: the Biggest Secret of Earthquake Revealed

On 24 July 2015, I, through an article titled ‘Earthquake Alert Message by Don Prince’, tried to aware people that an aftershock with 4.9 M would strike in near future. On 10 August, exactly 4.9 M originated making Gorkha as epicentre. It’s a matter of dismay that some people were injured while running here and there nervously. More badly, someone died due to this aftershock as it destroyed the house where he was living.

Question may arise here how do I know this aftershock was going to hit? Though April 25 became a curse for Nepal, the positive aspect of this earthquake is that it might have revealed the secret of aftershocks in the world. If it is proven to be true, no harm on humans will be caused due to aftershock like May 12 in future. Ultimately, the fear of earthquake will be an old age history on the earth. Because I believe that if aftershocks are predictable, Earthquake is not beyond this rule. Because aftershock and earthquake are same. And it is well known to all that even USGS believes aftershocks are predictable.

After experiencing April 25 earthquake and its all aftershocks on the spot, I have discovered that aftershocks are uncertain but they are not random. They run in a kind of special law. And I am sorry, I have named it after my name, i.e. ‘’Prince’s Law of Aftershock’’. For the first time, as an experiment, I had predicted 5.8 M aftershock on 27 May 2015 through this law which came true on 11 June 2015. Have a glance on the screenshot below where one of the readers of National Discovery has notified that the prediction has come true.

You may ask what is next then. Is Nepal still vulnerable to strongest aftershock like May 12? The answer sounds very cool. Now the upcoming strongest aftershock is 4.8 and there won’t be any aftershock greater than it in this sequence. Ok, but how?

‘’Prince’s Law of Aftershock’’ says, ‘’When a big earthquake more than 7 M takes place, aftershocks begin. These aftershocks are always led by strongest shock. Gradually the magnitude of the strongest aftershock decreases.  While changing rate of decrement, it follows special rule. Now the strongest aftershock is decreasing with 0.1 magnitudes.’’

If you analyse the aftershocks recorded by National Seismological Centre, you will definitely have a clear idea about it.

But how to recognize the strongest aftershocks? They appear after an interval time usually after a gap of aftershocks. Moreover it may follow the universal law of earthquake, so when the strongest aftershock hits, it may trigger another shock after 24 hours which will be about 1 M less. After the strongest aftershock, the numbers of aftershocks will increase for some days.

The evidence for this 4.9 M of 10 August was the strongest aftershock with its aftershocks sequences is that on 11 August 3.7 M hit that happened exactly after 24 hours and it was about 1 M less than the previous strongest shock of 4.9.

Actually I am planning to release this ''Prince's Law of Aftershock'' with its formula and statistics after three months. But the 4.9 aftershock of 10 August forced me to publish it right now at least partially. on 11 August at 10:42 am, an aftershock hit Kathmandu. The magnitude was only 4.3. However it terrorized people because epicentre was in the local area. Though some aftershocks around 4.3 M was frequently taking place in other areas of Nepal, people became nervous in Kathmandu and even schools and shops were closed. In the other hand, aftershocks are seen again active in Nepal. So people have been confused and frustrated. But it is normal. As I mentioned above aftershocks increase again because of the strongest aftershock which will decrease exponentially. So there is nothing to worry about.

You are reading this finding freely because I have created it for the people like you. Now it’s your responsibility to let other people know the reality so that they come out of the earthquake trauma and save themselves during aftershock. You can do it by sharing this article with as many friends and relatives as you can.
Have a safe life journey!
Discovered by Don Prince

What Actually Google Boy of Nepal Said about Earthquake

Last week, when I checked the 'search keywords'' in my blog's dashboard, I found that it is full of the searches about Aditya Dahal, the google boy of Nepal. And the reason was that he had predicted that there would be notable change in Nepal within a month. He was leaving Nepal at that time. He was going to the USA for the treatment of his illness. While he was leaving, he couldn't stop himself from crying.

Google is still sending people into my blog to satisfy people's queries regarding the earthquake prediction made by the google boy, though the blog does not give direct answer about it. Now I have decided to answer it directly. As a result I am creating this post.

Media and people gave special attention for the story. As fear of earthquake was still on the mind of common people, they connected the prediction of Aditya Dahal with earthquake. They believed that he had predicted another devastating earthquake in Nepal that could hit within a month. When they saw the recent photo of Aditya Dahal from the moment he was leaving Nepal, they misunderstood that he was crying because Nepal is facing a big problem of another earthquake in near future. Now, standing on the misconception, people in the society are ridiculously talking that Nepal will invite another big earthquake in upcoming Bhadra month.

But the reality is different. Mr. Aditya Dahal has never ever predicted about earthquake. In this time, he has actually indicated the political situation. As Nepal is going to formulate new constitution within a month and it is going to adopt federal system, he has said it a notable change in the country. Likewise, he had cried not because earthquake is going to rock Nepal but because he was leaving Nepal for the first time.
Discovered by Don Prince

Amazing Health Problem Appeared in School

Manila Gurung {name changed} was a normal child studying in a school of Patanabhanjyang, Udaypur of Nepal. She was quite healthy mentally and physically. But one day she got senseless suddenly. Next day another student passed through the same situation after experiencing sudden headache and vomiting. Then within a week the unknown disease caught more than 10 students in the school.

As the event had been encountered in an educational zone, students were tried to be treated through a doctor but in a primary health centre. But when situation was not controlled, everyone took asylum with a witch doctor. However, they did not get relief.

This type of health problem is called Mass Hysteria in Psychology. It is also called group hysteria or collective hysteria. If the patients are treated by the specialist, it can be easily cured.
Rediscovered by Don Prince

Polygame Causes Heart Disease

The recently done survey says that the person having up to 4 wives has 5 times more chance of heart disease.

According to the survey the man with many wives has tension of economy. They are busy. They are stressed socially and psychologically. So they may have heart disease.
Discovered by Don Prince

Regular Exercise Increases Life Span

Minimum 150 minutes exercise in a week can not only make people healthy but also increase their life span. A survey has shown.

The researchers of National Cancer Institute of Harvard University had done survey in 6 lakh 61 thousand people. They conclude that exercise is useful to cure disease. It decreases untimely death.
Rediscovered by Don Prince